Let's take a quick look at the charts and see what changed over the past month.

Let's start by looking at crypto. Both Bitcoin and Ether continued their downward trend. Since November 9th the two tokens lost 72% and 80% of their value respectively.

Yields peaked on June 14th and have corrected slightly along with Copper/Gold, which often acts as a leading indicator for interest rates.

Short-term yields are catching up with long-term yields. After the long end of the yield curve already inverted in March, the spreads between the 10y-1y and the 2y-1y are now also close to turning negative.

Over the past few months, the yield for a 10-year treasury bond rose faster than the expected inflation rate. This rise in real yields has been negative for gold prices.

Silver has been falling faster than gold. Accordingly, we saw a rise in the Gold/Silver ratio, which often correlates with the US Dollar Index.

Just like silver, mining stocks have been falling faster than gold, leading the XAU/Gold ratio lower.

Since April 2020, oil has been outperforming gold. Since then, the Oil/Gold ratio rose along with Energy Stocks/S&P 500.

Let's finish this month's newsletter with a quick look at valuation metrics for the US stock market. Market Cap/GDP, the Shiller PE Ratio, the PE Ratio, and the Dividend Yield all indicate that equities are still rather expensive. In the words of J. P. Hussmann "The recent market decline has simply retraced the frothiest portion of the recent bubble, bringing the most reliable market valuation measures back toward their 1929 and 2000 extremes".

This month's newsletter is sponsored by Cambria Funds. Are you searching for a strategy that goes beyond dividends? Cambria’s Shareholder Yield ETFs combine dividends, buybacks, and debt paydown to offer a more holistic approach to yield investing, often referred to as “shareholder yield.” Read about the US-focused SYLD here. Read about the foreign-developed focused FYLD and foreign emerging-focused EYLD here. Always read the prospectus before investing: SYLD, FYLD, EYLD.

Do you have different interpretations to the charts or do you have ideas on how to improve Longtermtrends.net? - I'd love to hear them! Feel free to reply to this email or to contact me on Twitter.

Thanks for reading and have a nice day!