With the March numbers in the books, let's jump right into the charts.
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Longtermtrends
With the March numbers in the books, let's jump right into the charts.

The big news from last month was the Yield Curve inversion. When the yield curve inverts short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates, which is often considered to be a predictor of an economic recession. On March 29th the most closely watched spread, the 2s/10s inverted. The 2s/30s and the 5s/10s followed suit.
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According to Pictet AM, when the yield curve inverts bonds tend to outperform equities over the following 5 years. Looking at a 12-year horizon, John Hussman found a similar correlation with the share of household financial assets invested in stocks. However, it's important to note that over the long-term, stocks tend to outperform bonds.
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Yields also rose for Aaa- & Baa-rated corporate bonds and for mortgages. However, the Credit Spreads between these yields remained low.
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After the US money supply increased by 25.68% in the previous year, US inflation reached 7.87%. With this development, the real interest rate for a 1-year US Treasury bond fell to -7.07%. Falling real yields are supportive for Gold prices.
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Having examined interest rates in a bit more detail, let's take a look at stocks. Internationally, the US Stock Market kept outperforming the rest of the world and Emerging Markets kept underperforming developed markets.
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On most valuation metrics US stocks still appear "expensive", as they do for example on the S&P 500 Dividend Yield and on the Shiller PE Ratio.
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Do you have different interpretations to the charts or do you have ideas on how to improve Longtermtrends.net? - I'd love to hear them! Feel free to reply to this email or to contact me on Twitter.

Thanks for reading and have a nice day!

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Disclaimer: The information above is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence. Before making any investment decision, you should seek financial, legal, tax and accounting advice, taking into consideration your individual financial needs and circumstances and carefully considering the risks associated with such investment decisions.
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