Is this a soft landing or the start of a recession? (11 min read)

The US economy is at a fork in the road, with a near-term recession looming, or the possibility of a soft landing. Althought economists predict a recession, there are still factors like slower job growth and easing inflation that suggest the economy could cool off without falling into a full-blown recession. Many have also pointed to the low unemployment rate, strong labor market, and rising participation rates as evidence of the economy's resilience. This article assesses the factors that are supporting each outcome.

India to surpass China as world's most populous country by end of month (4 min read)
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According to the United Nations, India will become the world's most populous country by the end of April, surpassing China for the first time in history. This milestone has implications for India's economic prospects, as it could follow China's path to becoming a major global power. The country’s young population and higher fertility rate give it an advantage over China, which is facing a population decline and an aging crisis. India's growing population has also made it an attractive destination for multinational companies seeking to reduce their reliance on China.

Apple declares ‘resounding victory’ after decision reached in Epic Games appeal (2 min read)
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Apple won its legal battle against Epic Games over its App Store rules, as an appeals court decision mostly sided with Apple. The court found that it did not violate antitrust law by banning competing apps. But Apple did lose one claim and had to allow developers to place links inside their apps, so users could make purchases outside the App Store. The decision means Apple’s control over the App Store and the fees it charges is unlikely to change. The App Store remains a critical source of profit for Apple, contributing to a big part of its services revenue in 2022.

Retail store closures 'to sharply accelerate going forward': UBS research (2 min read)
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Bed Bath & Beyond’s bankruptcy filing on Sunday might be foreshadowing other retail busts in the years ahead. Investment bank UBS recently predicts 50,000 US retail stores will close by 2027 due to a slowdown in consumer spending, credit reduction, higher costs and e-commerce. Sectors most affected will include clothing accessories and consumer electronics. While poorly capitalized retailers will struggle, well-established players such as Walmart, Home Depot and Costco will likely benefit and poised to take advantage of the disruption.

AI and ETFs: the machines are coming, but not always winning (5 min read)
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Active managers are still beating artificial intelligence-driven ETFs, which use machine learning, sentiment analysis and natural language processing to identify trends and patterns that help them select assets. Despite the hype surrounding AI-driven ETFs, these alternatives have shown inconsistent performances. One of the problems with these ETFs is that they struggle to track trends that have not been picked up in past data that the machine analyses. Therefore, the current downfall is that it still requires human oversight and intervention.

Want to Invest in the Housing Market? Try This ETF (4 min read)
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This article highlights the iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF (REZ) for investors looking to gain diversified exposure to the US housing market. REZ invests in both single-family and multifamily residential housing markets as well as healthcare and self-storage real estate. The expense ratio for REZ is higher than many other ETFs in the same category but might be a fair price to pay considering it is the only ETF concentrated in residential real estate. More detail on REZ is available in the article.

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Thanks,
Thomas

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