With the January numbers in the books, let's jump right into the charts.

Let's start by looking at the Yield Curve, which is the most inverted it has ever been since 1981.

Looking more closely, we can see that yields rose for all maturities and across all risk levels until November 2022. Since then, we have seen some easing after lower inflation data.

Continuing with inflation, after peaking in June 2022 it reversed and fell to 6.45% following the M2 money supply growth rate, which turned negative for the first time since 1933.

Via Maverick Equity Research, the market is pricing expected inflation at 2.36% via the 1-year inflation swap prices.

Falling inflation led to a rising real interest rate, which is still negative at -1.77% for a 1-year US Treasury bond (calculated using actual rather than expected inflation).

Credit Spreads remain low except for mortgages, for which they recently exceeded the 2008 and 2020 highs. However, since November 2022 we see also mortgage spreads easing. 

Switching gears, let's take a look at the US Stocks & Bonds. In January 2023, both Stocks & Bonds bounced back with returns of 6.18% and 3.89% respectively.

Looking at individual US stock market sectors, 8 out of 11 sectors delivered positive returns. Consumer Staples, Health Care and Utilities are the laggards while Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services and Information Technology led the market.

Via Maverick Equity Research we examine the US stock market in even more granularity and find the 2023 winners inside the S&P 500 as well as the ones that rebounded the most from their 52-week low.

Segmenting the US stock market, growth stocks bounced back in January 2023 in e general risk-on environment. 

Internationally, the US stock market underperformed in January the (aggregate) rest of the world.

Valuation wise, the PE Ratio for the S&P 500 rose in January from 21.08 to 21.79 while the Market Cap to GDP climbed higher to 155.84%.

Finally, looking at crypto, we observe that the Total Crypto Market Cap is back above $1 trillion after it dropped to $745 billion late last year.

The individual crypto coins (that constitute the total crypto market cap from above) and their YTD performance are shown in this crypto heatmap.

This month's newsletter is sponsored by Green Crypto Research. Green Crypto Research (GCR) is a non-profit association based in Zug, Switzerland, that specializes in evaluating the sustainability of cryptocurrencies. The organization was founded in May 2021 and developed the world's first and to date only ESG rating for cryptocurrencies. With that, GCR enables professional investors, asset managers and crypto exchanges to offer sustainable crypto solutions to their clients.

Special thanks to ​Maverick Equity Research for contributing to this months issue!​​​ I highly recommend subscribing to his substack.

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Thanks for reading and have a nice day!