With the 2021 numbers in the books, let's take a step back, reflect on the year, and have a look at the major developments in the charts.

One of the major stories in 2021 was a pickup in inflation all over the world. In the US, CPI inflation followed M2 Money Supply growth and rose to 6.81%. 

With a pickup in inflation the real yield (calculated with actual rather than expected inflation) for a 1-year US Treasury bond fell to -6.42%. However, along with the price of Gold, the real yield for a 10-year Treasury Bond (calculated with expected inflation) stayed rather stable at -1%.

Looking at nominal yields, since the start of the corona pandemic a gap opened up between the copper/gold ratio and the 10-year US Treasury Bond Yield. Risk premiums for lower quality credit (i.e. credit spreads) remain on record lows.
In contrast to the recessions of 2001 and 2007, the yield curve stopped rising in 2021 after the COVID-19 recession. For now, the yield spread between a 10-year and a 2-year US Treasury bond peaked at 1.47% (in contrast to 2.57% in 2003 and 2.82% in 2010).

Another story from 2021 was the strengthening of the US dollar. Relative to other currencies, the US dollar rose along with the gold/silver ratio.

Let's take a look at equities. Throughout the year, valuation multiples kept rising with the Shiller PE Ratio currently at 39.98 and Market Cap to GDP at 210.28%.

Within the US, since January 2021, Growth stocks and the Nasdaq were able to keep their gains that they accumulated relative to the rest of the market.
Internationally, the United States kept outperforming the (aggregate) rest of the world, whereas emerging markets kept underperforming developed markets.

Looking at national stock markets, in 2021, the US stock market was up 27.71%. With this data print, the US outperformed many other major stock markets such as China (+8.51%), Brazil (-20.16%), and Germany (+6.66%).

It was a volatile year for commodities. Oil came back from its lows and outperformed gold in 2021. In other noteworthy news, soft logs (lumber) rose to $262.10 per cubic meter, natural gas went up 516% year-over-year, and iron ore peaked at $215.82 per metric ton.

Finally, looking at Crypto, in 2021, Ether and Bitcoin went up by 423.86% and 61.09% respectively.

For more macro charts, check out Thomas Callum and his 2021 End of Year Special Report.

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