Economists’ crystal balls are growing cloudier. But they still expect a recession (2 min read)
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The National Association for Business Economics' latest survey shows significant divergence among economists about the US economy in 2023. Nearly 60% of respondents believe there is more than a 50% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, but there are wide differences in opinions as to when it would start. The anticipation was mostly evened out: 28% said the first quarter; 33% said the second quarter, and 21% said the third quarter. Views on how high the Fed will hike rates and for how long were also highly divided according to the survey.

The 7 Greatest Asset Bubbles of All Time - All You Need to Know (11 min read)
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This article looks at some of the greatest asset bubbles in history, including the Tulip mania in 1637, South sea in 1720, The Great Crash in 1929, Japan in 1989, DotCom in 2000, US Housing in 2007, and Bitcoin in 2021. They were compared based on market capitalization, price changes, and the time it took to recover, if ever. Japan’s market crash in 1989 was considered the greatest asset bubble of all time in terms of those three measures. More on the rationale and in-depth analysis for each asset bubble are available in the article.

Zoom shares jump on better-than-expected fourth-quarter results (2 min read)
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Zoom reported Q4 earnings and revenue on Monday that were better than analysts’ expectations. Although the company’s revenue grew 4% from a year ago, it was still a dramatic slowdown compared to growth in 2020 and 2021 during the pandemic. Zoom also reported its first net loss since 2018. However, it gave optimistic guidance for the year and introduced new services to attract and retain customers. Shares of Zoom rose about 8% in extended trading on Monday after the news.

Fisker confirms Ocean EV deliveries will begin in spring, it’s on track to build more than 40,000 in 2023 (3 min read)
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Fisker's shares closed 30% higher on Monday after the company reported it spent less money in 2022 than expected and remains on track to begin deliveries for its Ocean SUV this spring. The Ocean SUV currently has over 65,000 reservations. The company also plans on ramping up production and aims to build more than 40,000 vehicles in 2023. The news came less than a week after similar EV startups, Lucid and Nikola, underwhelmed their production and delivery results.

Schwab Fined $144,000 Over ETF Advice (2 min read)
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The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) has ordered Charles Schwab to pay a client $144,000 after an advisor gave a bad ETF recommendation. The client, who wishes to make long-term investments in oil, was recommended to invest in the United States Oil Fund (USO), an ETF that holds short-term oil futures. USO lost about two-thirds of its value between March and June 2020, and the client complained that his investment was subjected to unnecessary concentrations of risk, a factor not disclosed at the time of recommendation.

Bet Against Chip Stocks Boosts Popular ETF SOXS (2 min read)

Despite losing about 42% year-to-date, Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares (SOXS) managed to gain $1.3 billion in new assets since the start of 2023. SOXS is an ETF that bets against semiconductor stocks by offering 3x inverse exposure to the ICE Semiconductor Index. The fund's recent much larger inflows compared to other plain vanilla ETFs in the same sector suggest that some investors are increasingly bearish on semiconductor stocks.

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Thanks,
Thomas

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