With the September numbers in the books, let's jump right into the charts!
 ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ 

Did this email reach your Spam folder? If so, please move this email to your primary folder and add [email protected] to your contacts. This will help you & others to receive future mailings in your inbox.
244c9853-ad1c-11eb-a3d0-06b4694bee2a%2F1662298840156-greencryptoresearch.jpg
Longtermtrends
With the September numbers in the books, let's jump right into the charts!

Let's start by looking at interest rates. Yields for all maturities kept rising and the yield curve kept inverting.
244c9853-ad1c-11eb-a3d0-06b4694bee2a%2F1664947721175-Screenshot_2022-10-05_at_07_26_28.png
244c9853-ad1c-11eb-a3d0-06b4694bee2a%2F1664914305483-Screenshot_2022-10-04_at_22_10_02.png
244c9853-ad1c-11eb-a3d0-06b4694bee2a%2F1664914309074-Screenshot_2022-10-04_at_22_10_27.png
Naturally, rising yields were negative for bonds and stocks. In fact, according to Charlie Bilello, a 60/40 Portfolio of US Stocks/Bonds is down 21% in 2022, on pace to become the 2nd worst year in history after 1931.
244c9853-ad1c-11eb-a3d0-06b4694bee2a%2F1664913229324-Screenshot+2022-10-04+at+21.45.30.png
Last month, the yield for a 10-year US Treasury Bond hit 4% for the first time since 2010. It decoupled from the Copper to Gold Ratio, which is often mentioned as a leading indicator for interest rates.
244c9853-ad1c-11eb-a3d0-06b4694bee2a%2F1664914870795-Screenshot_2022-10-04_at_22_17_17.png
US Inflation dropped slightly, thus following the declining growth rate of the M2 Money Supply.
244c9853-ad1c-11eb-a3d0-06b4694bee2a%2F1664915419142-Screenshot_2022-10-04_at_22_27_05.png
With rising yields and falling inflation, real yields rose and Gold fell accordingly.
244c9853-ad1c-11eb-a3d0-06b4694bee2a%2F1664915570161-Screenshot_2022-10-04_at_22_32_21.png
Credit Spreads remain low except for mortgages, for which they reached the 2008 and 2020 highs. With rising mortgage yields, real home prices and the Home Price to Income Ratio started to decline ever so slightly.
244c9853-ad1c-11eb-a3d0-06b4694bee2a%2F1664915741514-Screenshot_2022-10-04_at_22_35_11.png
244c9853-ad1c-11eb-a3d0-06b4694bee2a%2F1664916154367-Screenshot_2022-10-04_at_22_39_12.png
244c9853-ad1c-11eb-a3d0-06b4694bee2a%2F1664916157465-Screenshot_2022-10-04_at_22_42_06.png
Let's take a look at different valuation metrics for the US stock market. The PE Ratio for the S&P 500 dropped to 18.12, thus moving closer to its long-term mean average. The Shiller PE Ratio dropped to 26.84, Market Cap to GDP to 145.54%, and the Dividend Yield rose to 1.62%.
244c9853-ad1c-11eb-a3d0-06b4694bee2a%2F1664916501549-Screenshot+2022-10-04+at+22.44.29.png
244c9853-ad1c-11eb-a3d0-06b4694bee2a%2F1664916507748-Screenshot+2022-10-04+at+22.44.42.png
244c9853-ad1c-11eb-a3d0-06b4694bee2a%2F1664916513683-Screenshot+2022-10-04+at+22.44.58.png
244c9853-ad1c-11eb-a3d0-06b4694bee2a%2F1664916518487-Screenshot+2022-10-04+at+22.45.11.png
Internationally, the US stock market kept outperforming the (aggregate) rest of the world - and Emerging Markets kept underperforming Developed Markets.
244c9853-ad1c-11eb-a3d0-06b4694bee2a%2F1664917047307-Screenshot_2022-10-04_at_22_56_55.png
244c9853-ad1c-11eb-a3d0-06b4694bee2a%2F1664916972658-Screenshot_2022-10-04_at_22_55_33.png
Looking at sectors year-to-date, Energy and Healthcare, as well as traditionally defensive sectors, such as Utilities and Consumer Staples, outperformed the rest of the market. The worst performing sector was Communication Services, which includes Meta (Facebook), Alphabet (Google), and Netflix.
244c9853-ad1c-11eb-a3d0-06b4694bee2a%2F1664917329889-Screenshot_2022-10-04_at_22_58_57.png
244c9853-ad1c-11eb-a3d0-06b4694bee2a%2F1664917336935-Screenshot_2022-10-04_at_22_59_34.png
244c9853-ad1c-11eb-a3d0-06b4694bee2a%2F1664917333871-Screenshot_2022-10-04_at_22_59_12.png
244c9853-ad1c-11eb-a3d0-06b4694bee2a%2F1664917341308-Screenshot_2022-10-04_at_22_59_50.png
244c9853-ad1c-11eb-a3d0-06b4694bee2a%2F1664917547687-Screenshot_2022-10-04_at_23_04_42.png
Looking at a comparison of national stock markets, year-to-date most markets are down. Notable exceptions are Turkey (+31.36%) as well as some South American markets, including Argentina (+20.43%), Brazil (+14.21%), and Chile (+6.32%).
244c9853-ad1c-11eb-a3d0-06b4694bee2a%2F1664917948999-Screenshot+2022-10-04+at+23.10.39.png
244c9853-ad1c-11eb-a3d0-06b4694bee2a%2F1664917954737-Screenshot+2022-10-04+at+23.10.55.png
Let's finish this month's chart brief with a look at crypto. The long-awaited ethereum upgrade, which on September 15th changed the blockchain's consensus mechanism from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake, has not materialized in rising prices and the Ether/Bitcoin Ratio dropped.
244c9853-ad1c-11eb-a3d0-06b4694bee2a%2F1664918509818-Screenshot+2022-10-04+at+23.20.50.png
244c9853-ad1c-11eb-a3d0-06b4694bee2a%2F1664918539808-Screenshot_2022-10-04_at_23_21_21.png
This month's newsletter is sponsored by Green Crypto Research. Green Crypto Research (GCR) is a non-profit association based in Zug, Switzerland, that specializes in evaluating the sustainability of cryptocurrencies. The organization was founded in May 2021 and developed the world's first and to date only ESG rating for cryptocurrencies. With that, GCR enables professional investors, asset managers and crypto exchanges to offer sustainable crypto solutions to their clients.

Do you have different interpretations to the charts or do you have ideas on how to improve Longtermtrends.net? - I'd love to hear them! Feel free to reply to this email or to contact me on Twitter.

Thanks for reading and have a nice day!
Signature
You received this email because you subscribed to our list. You can unsubscribe at any time.
Terms of use
Longtermtrends, Rüdigerstrasse 9, Zürich, ZH, 8045, Switzerland
Powered by EmailOctopus